Orders for Paris Air Show 2019 is likely to be half that obtained in 2018, according to International Bureau of Aviation (IBA) group’s prediction.
“To set the scene, 2019 is not shaping up to be a good year on the order front which is not particularly surprising given the headwinds. Firm and Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) orders combined could be as low as 450,” Dr Stuart Hatcher, Chief Operating Officer, MD-Aviation Services for IBA, said.
“Already, year to date, we have an unprecedented number of aircraft returning from failed operators as traffic growth slows, yields continue to soften from an historical low point, fuel costs increase across the medium term and forex is far from ideal. Aside from these economic points, 737 MAX grounding and the China-US Trade problems add to the woes,” Hatcher explains.
He added that Airbus will be launching the A321XLR twin-engine jet airliner while Boeing will skip the launch of its New Midsize Airplane (NMA) at the event.
“It will, however, set out the re-entry programme of the 737 MAX in more detail,” he said.
Airbus can expect new orders from the US majors for A321XLR, a new order by Saudi Arabian Airlines for A350s (to replace the 777-200ERs) and A320neos/A321neos, and a potential large order from IndiGo for the XLR to take advantage of the vacuum left by Jet Airways are expected, according to the predictions.
In addition, Airbus can also expect orders from Air France for new narrow-body aircraft, along with orders for new aircraft to replace the ageing 777-200ERs and A330s.
Korea and Thailand could place orders for the Airbus aircraft. It is likely that they will purchase A330neos and A350s in order to curtail operating costs.
Boeing is likely to bag contracts for 787 and 777X aircraft from legacy carriers in the Far East and Europe (like Air France, Thai & Korean), other than securing military deals.
Mitsubishi is expected to win orders to convert a few of the MRJ90 aircraft to the new “MRJ76” and Embraer will likely bag the contracts for additional E175-E1 and E195-E2 aircraft.