ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) reported Q4 2025 net revenue of EUR 9.7 billion, a record quarter that included the recognition of revenue for two High-NA systems. For the full year 2025, the company reported revenue of EUR 32.7 billion, representing a 16% increase compared to 2024.
Management said the quarter also set records for order intake and free cash flow generation. Executives attributed the improving demand environment to customers becoming more optimistic about medium-term market prospects, particularly due to what they described as a more robust and sustainable view of AI-driven demand.
Q4 and full-year financial performance
The company’s installed base business generated EUR 2.1 billion in Q4 and EUR 8.2 billion for the year. Management characterized installed base performance as strong, citing growing service revenue tied to the expanding EUV installed base as well as increased demand for upgrades.
Bookings and backlog highlight strength in EUV
ASML said net bookings totaled EUR 13.2 billion in Q4, including EUR 7.4 billion attributed to EUV. The company ended 2025 with a total backlog of EUR 38.8 billion, of which EUR 25.5 billion was EUV.
CEO commentary tied the strong order environment to customer plans to invest in capacity expansion as AI-related demand appears increasingly durable. Management also emphasized it demonstrated the ability to increase output in Q4, describing that as important heading into expectations for 2026.
2026 outlook: revenue growth expectations and margin range
For Q1 2026, ASML guided for net revenue between EUR 8.2 billion and EUR 8.9 billion. The company expects Q1 gross margin of 51% to 53% and installed base revenue of about EUR 2.4 billion.
For full-year 2026, ASML expects total net revenue of EUR 34 billion to EUR 39 billion, with gross margin again forecast in the range of 51% to 53%.
Discussing how end-market demand could flow through to results, management said it expects:
- EUV revenue to increase significantly compared to 2025, reflecting customer capacity plans and adoption of advanced nodes.
- Non-EUV system business to be “flattish” year over year in total, though with varying dynamics across segments.
- China revenue to approximate China’s share of the backlog, which management said is around 20%.
- Metrology and inspection to remain strong, citing customer demand for process control.
- Installed base business to grow, supported by EUV service revenue and customer appetite for upgrades as a faster route to additional capacity.
Market and technology commentary: AI drives advanced nodes
Executives said the market outlook improved notably in recent months, particularly tied to AI infrastructure build-outs that are translating into capacity needs at advanced logic and DRAM customers. Management said this has started to drive orders for ASML’s most advanced tools, particularly EUV.
On logic, the company cited a transition from 4-nm to 3-nm technology and an accelerating 2-nm ramp to support future mobile and high-performance computing applications. On DRAM, management highlighted strong demand for HBM as well as DDR, which it said could lead to tight supply in 2026 and potentially beyond. The company also pointed to customer ramps of 1b and 1c nodes, and said customers are increasing the number of EUV layers on those nodes.
On the product roadmap, ASML said 2025 was an important year for ramping its NXE 3800 Low-NA EUV platform, stating it reached a final throughput of 220 wafers per hour and demonstrated up to 230 wafers per hour at some customers. Management also said it is providing additional EUV upgrades for the installed base to help customers add output capacity in the near term.
Regarding High-NA, executives said customers continue to make progress qualifying systems. They noted that Intel reported it had accepted its first 5200 tool, which management described as the first tool to be used in high-volume manufacturing, and said other customers would receive tools soon. They added that imaging, performance, and overlay results are “looking good” in qualification efforts.
ASML also discussed strength in inspection and metrology, stating that business grew by almost 30% in 2025. The company specifically highlighted progress in E-beam inspection, saying multi-beam is becoming more critical and that it expects more traction in 2026 after technology maturation and initial customer value demonstrations in 2025.
Dividend and buyback updates; long-term targets reiterated
ASML said it will pay an interim dividend of EUR 1.60 per ordinary share for the quarter. The company said it plans to propose a final payment to the AGM of EUR 2.70 per ordinary share related to 2025. Combined with interim dividends, ASML said the total dividend for 2025 would be EUR 7.50 per ordinary share, a 17% increase over 2024.
On share repurchases, management said the prior buyback program ended in December and was not completed, with EUR 7.6 billion repurchased out of a maximum EUR 12 billion. The company announced a new buyback program of up to EUR 12 billion over a three-year period ending in December 2028.
Looking further out, ASML reiterated long-term targets first outlined at its November 2024 Capital Markets Day. For 2030, the company said it expects revenue of EUR 44 billion to EUR 60 billion and gross margin of 56% to 60%, citing AI-driven demand for advanced technology in DRAM and logic and continued progress in EUV cost of technology that supports increased lithography intensity.
About ASML (NASDAQ:ASML)
ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is a Dutch company that develops, manufactures and services advanced photolithography systems used to produce semiconductor chips. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, ASML supplies capital equipment and associated software and services that enable semiconductor manufacturers to pattern the intricate circuits on silicon wafers. The company is widely recognized for its leadership in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography as well as its deep ultraviolet (DUV) platforms used across multiple process nodes.
ASML’s product portfolio includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, light sources, imaging optics and control software, together with spare parts, upgrades and field services.
