Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) Hits New 1-Year Low Following Weak Earnings

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK)’s share price hit a new 52-week low during mid-day trading on Tuesday after the company announced weaker than expected quarterly earnings. The company traded as low as $13.89 and last traded at $13.6140, with a volume of 1227140 shares trading hands. The stock had previously closed at $14.78.

The industrial products company reported $0.29 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.34 by ($0.05). Graphic Packaging had a return on equity of 19.98% and a net margin of 5.94%.The business had revenue of $2.10 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.04 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned $0.59 earnings per share. The firm’s revenue was up .4% compared to the same quarter last year. Graphic Packaging has set its FY 2026 guidance at 0.750-1.15 EPS.

Graphic Packaging Announces Dividend

The firm also recently announced a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, January 7th. Stockholders of record on Monday, December 15th were issued a dividend of $0.11 per share. This represents a $0.44 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 3.5%. The ex-dividend date was Monday, December 15th. Graphic Packaging’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is presently 25.88%.

Key Headlines Impacting Graphic Packaging

Here are the key news stories impacting Graphic Packaging this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue slightly beat expectations — sales were $2.10B vs. analyst estimates ~$2.04B, showing resilience in top‑line despite margin pressure. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Company reaffirmed a 2026 adjusted free‑cash‑flow target of $700–$800M, which supports the balance sheet and cash generation outlook if achieved. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Capital projects update — Waco is reported substantially complete and total projected spend disclosed, reducing future capex risk but reflecting recent heavy investment. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Company initiated a comprehensive review of operations/footprint and a selective portfolio review — could lead to cost actions or asset sales but outcome/timing are uncertain. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: EPS miss: Q4 EPS was $0.29 vs. consensus ~$0.34 and well below prior‑year $0.59, signaling margin compression and earnings deterioration. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: FY‑2026 EPS guidance (0.75–1.15) is materially below consensus (~1.78), driving the stock selloff — investors are repricing expectations for near‑term profitability. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Profitability and net income declined y/y (2025 net income $444M vs $658M in 2024; Q4 net income fell sharply), intensifying concerns about margin recovery. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Market reaction: heavy trading volume and headline coverage (MSN/Associated Press) highlight broad investor selling following the earnings/guidance update. Read More.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

GPK has been the subject of a number of recent research reports. Bank of America reiterated a “neutral” rating and set a $24.00 price objective on shares of Graphic Packaging in a research note on Thursday, October 9th. UBS Group reduced their price target on Graphic Packaging from $19.00 to $17.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Monday, January 12th. Truist Financial dropped their price target on shares of Graphic Packaging from $20.00 to $18.00 and set a “hold” rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. Raymond James Financial downgraded shares of Graphic Packaging from an “outperform” rating to a “market perform” rating in a research report on Friday, October 17th. Finally, Wells Fargo & Company cut shares of Graphic Packaging from an “equal weight” rating to an “underweight” rating and decreased their target price for the stock from $18.00 to $12.00 in a report on Tuesday, January 6th. Eight analysts have rated the stock with a Hold rating and three have given a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat.com, Graphic Packaging currently has a consensus rating of “Reduce” and an average target price of $18.38.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. UBS Group AG boosted its holdings in Graphic Packaging by 123.8% in the fourth quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 9,026,134 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $135,934,000 after purchasing an additional 4,992,179 shares during the last quarter. Eminence Capital LP lifted its holdings in shares of Graphic Packaging by 164.6% during the 3rd quarter. Eminence Capital LP now owns 7,648,135 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $149,674,000 after buying an additional 4,758,098 shares during the period. American Century Companies Inc. boosted its stake in shares of Graphic Packaging by 19.1% in the 2nd quarter. American Century Companies Inc. now owns 22,022,347 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $464,011,000 after buying an additional 3,533,846 shares during the last quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co. grew its holdings in shares of Graphic Packaging by 32.6% in the third quarter. JPMorgan Chase & Co. now owns 11,501,251 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $225,080,000 after acquiring an additional 2,828,094 shares during the period. Finally, Norges Bank purchased a new stake in Graphic Packaging during the second quarter valued at $55,632,000. 99.67% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Graphic Packaging Stock Performance

The company has a market cap of $3.66 billion, a P/E ratio of 7.30 and a beta of 0.62. The company has a quick ratio of 0.63, a current ratio of 1.54 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.67. The business has a fifty day simple moving average of $15.32 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $18.11.

About Graphic Packaging

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a leading provider of sustainable paperboard packaging solutions, offering a broad portfolio of products designed for food, beverage and other consumer goods markets. The company specializes in the manufacture of containerboard, folding cartons and engineered fill materials, as well as beverage packaging systems including paperboard cups, carriers and related components.

Through a network of manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe and Latin America, Graphic Packaging serves a diverse customer base that includes major consumer packaged goods companies, quick-service restaurants and retail chains.