NMI Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH) executives said the private mortgage insurer ended 2025 with record production and profitability, citing continued growth in insurance in force, stable premium yields, and what management described as industry-leading credit performance. On the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, leadership also highlighted expanded reinsurance coverage through 2028 and ongoing share repurchases, while discussing persistency trends and the broader housing and policy environment heading into 2026.

Record year and fourth-quarter results

Executive Chairman Brad Shuster said National MI “again delivered standout operating performance” in the fourth quarter, capping “another year of success.” The company reported $49 billion of total new insurance written (NIW) for 2025 and ended the year with a record $221.4 billion of primary insurance in force (IIF).

For the full year, management reported record GAAP net income of $388.9 million, up 8% from 2024, and record diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.92, up 11%. Return on equity for 2025 was 16.2%, according to the company.

In the fourth quarter, President and CEO Adam Pollitzer said the company generated $14.2 billion of NIW and posted record total revenue of $180.7 million. GAAP net income was $94.2 million, or $1.20 per diluted share, with a 14.8% return on equity.

Portfolio growth, premiums, and persistency

Chief Financial Officer Aurora Swithenbank said IIF increased 1.4% from the third quarter and 5.4% from the fourth quarter of 2024. Twelve-month persistency was 83.4% in the fourth quarter, down from 83.9% in the third quarter.

Net premiums earned were a record $152.5 million in the quarter, compared with $151.3 million in the third quarter and $143.5 million in the prior-year period. Net yield was 28 basis points, unchanged from the third quarter, while core yield (excluding reinsurance costs and cancellation earnings) was 34 basis points, also unchanged sequentially.

Asked about competitive dynamics and pricing, Pollitzer said the company continues to see a “really balanced and constructive environment,” pointing to volume, pricing, and “underlying unit economics” on new business. Swithenbank added that while the company does not provide guidance, management expects core yield to remain “generally stable going forward,” with net yield also influenced by loss experience because profit commissions vary with ceded claims expense.

On persistency and runoff, management attributed the quarter’s decline in persistency in part to fourth-quarter rate moves that spurred refinancing and supported the purchase market. Pollitzer said persistency remains “well above historical trends,” but the company expects it to come down “more in line with historical norms” over time, with rate-driven refinancing activity a key factor.

Credit performance and regional observations

Swithenbank said defaults totaled 7,661 at December 31, up from 7,093 at September 30, with a default rate of 1.12% at year-end. Claims expense was $21.2 million in the fourth quarter, up from $18.6 million in the third quarter, which she said reflected “normal seasonal activity” as well as continued portfolio growth and seasoning.

In response to questions about consumer health and geographic stress, Pollitzer said the company remains encouraged by “broad resiliency” in the macro environment and housing market, citing low unemployment and ongoing consumer spending, while also noting risks such as slower hiring activity, record consumer debt balances, and weaker consumer confidence among some cohorts. He said that aside from areas management has previously monitored for downward home price appreciation trends, the company is not seeing notable geographic or cohort issues in defaults or claims.

Shuster added that the company’s RateGPS tool allows it to manage business mix at a granular level across “950 different NSAs,” and said the company has actively shaped geographic exposure and mix within markets. While noting headlines in places such as Florida, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mountain West, he said the company is not seeing concentrations developing in its default population.

J.P. Morgan’s Rick Shane asked about differing persistency patterns across vintages and what that could mean for credit. Pollitzer said that earlier vintages with very low note rates are less likely to refinance and will run off more from life events and cancellations. He said later vintages—particularly 2023, 2024, and parts of 2025—are larger and generally have less embedded equity from home price appreciation, and that as those vintages age into the typical loss-incurrence period, the company would expect credit experience to “continue to normalize.” Pollitzer said an increase in refinancing could potentially “push off” some of that normalization, but the company is not yet seeing turnover at a level it considers noteworthy enough to meaningfully interrupt the trend.

Reinsurance, capital, and expense discipline

Management emphasized reinsurance as a core risk management pillar. Swithenbank said the company entered into new quota share and excess of loss treaties during the fourth quarter that provide forward-flow coverage for all new business produced through 2028 at an estimated 4% pre-tax cost of capital. She said the transactions were among the best the company has achieved in terms of cost, capacity, duration, and structure, and that reinsurance supports PMIERs growth capital.

At year-end, Swithenbank reported $3.5 billion of total available assets under PMIERs and $2.1 billion of risk-based required assets, for excess available assets of $1.4 billion.

On capital management, Swithenbank said the company repurchased $31 million of common stock in the fourth quarter, retiring 811,000 shares at an average price of $37.72. Since initiating its buyback program in 2022, NMI has repurchased $349 million of stock, retiring 12.1 million shares at an average price of $28.89. The company had $226 million of remaining capacity under its authorization. Pollitzer said the company does not have a set schedule, but indicated that roughly $25 million per quarter is “still a good assumption,” with flexibility based on valuation opportunities.

Expenses were $31.1 million in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2024, and the company’s expense ratio was 20.4%. Swithenbank reiterated a broad target expense ratio of 20% to 25% (low to mid-20s) and said there were no specific 2026 initiatives that would change the company’s expense discipline.

Pollitzer said the company has been deploying AI tools “for some time now” across departments, including underwriting data capture, IT and modeling work, finance processes related to close and SEC filings, legal, and cybersecurity. He said the company does not expect significant incremental AI investment to continue deployments, and characterized AI primarily as a way to improve productivity and scalability rather than to “specifically strip out expenses,” noting NMI’s already small headcount and efficient operating profile.

Industry view and policy commentary

Looking ahead, Pollitzer said the company is encouraged by the opportunity across the private mortgage insurance industry, noting total industry NIW volume of “over $300 billion” in 2025 (which he later characterized as roughly $310 billion) despite elevated rates for much of the year. He said NMI expects “a similarly attractive environment in 2026,” with performance premised on rates holding roughly where they are, and suggested there could be upside if affordability improves and refinancing continues.

On policy, Shuster said conversations in Washington “remain active and constructive,” and emphasized what he described as bipartisan recognition of the private MI industry’s role in supporting affordability while reducing risk for the GSEs and taxpayers. Asked about concerns around a potential FHA premium reduction, Pollitzer said the company does not believe additional FHA rate adjustment is warranted, pointing to what he described as constraints at the FHA across credit, capital, regulatory, and budget considerations. He said the company does not think it serves taxpayers to take on more risk through a larger subsidy when private MI is “ready, willing, and able” to provide support.

In closing remarks, management said the company plans to participate in the RBC Financial Services Conference in New York on March 11.

About NMI (NASDAQ:NMIH)

NMI Holdings, Inc (NASDAQ: NMIH) is a publicly traded mortgage insurance company that provides private mortgage insurance to lenders across the United States and Canada. Through its principal subsidiary, National Mortgage Insurance Corporation, NMI underwrites and issues policies that protect originators and investors against losses arising from borrower default on residential mortgage loans. By mitigating credit risk on higher‐loan‐to‐value mortgages, the company supports homebuyers’ access to financing and contributes to overall market liquidity.

Beyond its core mortgage insurance products, NMI offers credit risk‐sharing and reinsurance solutions designed to help clients optimize capital utilization and manage portfolio exposure.