Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) reported a strong fourth quarter to close out what CEO Peter Jackson described as a “transformative” 2025, while management also acknowledged softer-than-expected U.S. handle trends tied to unusually high NFL betting margins and the company’s promotional timing.
Fourth-quarter performance and 2025 recap
Jackson said 2025 delivered “continued market leadership and disciplined investment,” with full-year group revenue up 17% and adjusted EBITDA up 21%. For the fourth quarter, group revenue increased 25% and adjusted EBITDA rose 27%.
FanDuel’s iGaming business posted another strong quarter, with revenue up 33% driven by 18% growth in average monthly players (AMPs) and increased player frequency, which management attributed to content and rewards initiatives. FanDuel sportsbook revenue grew 35% in Q4, but executives spent much of the call addressing market dynamics that weighed on handle and engagement.
U.S. sportsbook: high margins, “adverse recycling,” and Generosity execution
Jackson said Q4 sportsbook trends diverged from expectations: higher gross revenue margins were “offset by moderating handle performance.” He emphasized that Flutter focuses on net revenue as the core KPI and evaluates revenue and handle together alongside customer activity.
Management attributed the lower handle growth in part to “adverse recycling,” describing a dynamic where persistently high gross revenue margins reduce customer engagement. Jackson said the second half of the NFL season also featured “less compelling content,” with fewer popular teams and players in the playoffs, which he said hurt engagement.
Jackson said the trends were more pronounced at FanDuel for two reasons:
- FanDuel’s “structural revenue advantage” meant adverse recycling had a greater impact, as FanDuel recorded persistently high NFL gross revenue margins in November and December.
- The company’s standard “Generosity” playbook (promotions and rewards) was less effective because investment phasing “did not sufficiently align with the pattern of sports results,” contributing to higher churn and market share loss.
Jackson said the company finished the NFL season “100 bps ahead” of expected margin at 19%, later referenced as 19.3% by CFO Rob Coldrake. In response to analyst questions, Jackson said Flutter had not changed pricing strategy such as “vig,” and characterized the handle effect as a known phenomenon tied to margin-driven recycling. He also noted U.S. football carries higher volatility than soccer-driven markets such as the U.K. and Italy.
Prediction markets: FanDuel Predicts launch and increased investment plans
Flutter launched FanDuel Predicts in Q4, positioning the offering as a way to access customers in states without regulated online sports betting. Jackson said early signals were encouraging, with most activity focused on sports and average volume per customer “in line with expectations.” He also said the company was pursuing options to provide market-making services using its proprietary pricing capabilities, with more details to come later.
Management repeatedly said it does not believe prediction markets are materially cannibalizing its existing sportsbook business. Jackson cited the company’s Missouri launch as supporting evidence, noting customer acquisition exceeded expectations, reaching 5% of the population within the first 30 days.
On spending, Coldrake said Flutter did not disclose a specific Q4 figure for FanDuel Predicts, but spending was “lower than the $45 million” guided previously. For 2026, the company expects prediction markets investment toward the upper end of its prior range, “closer to $300 million,” reflecting what it sees as a significant customer acquisition opportunity. Jackson said the company expects heavier investment in the second half of the year after an initial “test and learn” phase.
International segment: growth, integration, and Brazil investment
International revenue rose 19% in Q4 while adjusted EBITDA increased 6%. Jackson said the company is making “excellent progress” on transformation and integration programs.
Key updates included:
- UKI: The Sky Bet sportsbook migration delivered expected cost savings, and the company is accelerating customer-facing investment “to restore momentum.”
- SEA: Flutter regained online market leadership in Q4.
- Italy: The PokerStars migration was described as encouraging, with revenue growth of 13% and new customer volumes more than doubling in Q4. Management said PokerStars migrations will continue into 2026 to drive growth and cost savings. The Snai integration is progressing, and a planned platform migration in Q2 is expected to expand product access.
- Brazil: Improved casino and digital marketing capabilities drove a 51% increase in customer acquisition since the start of the year. Jackson said Flutter expects to invest more ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, accepting a shift in profitability phasing in exchange for longer-term scale.
Financial details, capital allocation, and 2026 guidance
Coldrake reiterated the company is on track to achieve targeted $300 million in cost savings by 2027 and said a comprehensive cost optimization program has begun for 2026.
For the quarter, group net income was $10 million. Coldrake said adjusted EBITDA growth was offset by higher interest costs tied to M&A financing and increased tax expense due to a “significant step up in U.S. profitability.” He said EPS and adjusted EPS declined by $0.50 and $1.20, respectively.
Net cash provided by operating activities declined $224 million to $428 million, which Coldrake attributed primarily to increased expenses and a $128 million adverse impact from lower customer deposits year over year. Free cash flow declined $335 million to $138 million, including M&A effects and higher capital expenditures, which he said were driven by the phasing of Italian concession payments and investments in revenue-enhancing and cost-efficiency projects such as PokerStars transformations.
Flutter repurchased $245 million of shares in Q4, bringing full-year 2025 repurchases to $1 billion, in line with guidance. Coldrake said the company expects to commence returning $250 million in the first half of 2026, with future buyback cadence to be updated during the year. Leverage ended the year at 3.7x, with management targeting 2x to 2.5x over the medium term.
For 2026, Flutter guided to:
- U.S.: Revenue of $7.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.05 billion (12% and 14% year-over-year growth, respectively). This includes $70 million in adjusted EBITDA investment for new state launches, with Alberta expected in Q2.
- International: Revenue of $10.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.23 billion at the midpoint (13% revenue growth and 1% EBITDA growth). Guidance includes approximately $70 million of investment in Brazil and incorporates the impacts of U.K. tax increases and the India real-money gaming shutdown.
- Unallocated corporate costs: $310 million, up $30 million year over year, reflecting investment in shared technology and talent and ongoing U.S. listing-related costs.
On U.S. guidance assumptions, management said it is not including prediction markets revenue. Coldrake noted the outlook reflects current trading impacts from high Q4 margins and a less compelling end to the NFL season, which reduced engagement into early 2026, though he said trends outside the NFL improved in February.
In Q&A, Flutter also said it expects a “de minimis” impact from stopping credit card deposits beginning in March, adding that the change is within the company’s plans.
About Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT)
Flutter Entertainment plc is a global sports betting and gaming company that operates a portfolio of consumer-facing brands and digital platforms. The company’s primary activities include online sports betting, casino gaming, poker, and daily fantasy sports, delivered through web and mobile applications as well as retail betting locations in select markets. Flutter focuses on product development, customer acquisition and engagement, and compliance with local gambling regulations across the jurisdictions where it operates.
Flutter’s brand portfolio includes well-known names in different regional markets, such as FanDuel in the United States, PokerStars, Betfair, Paddy Power and Sky Betting & Gaming in Europe and elsewhere.
