Q1 Earnings Estimate for BigBear.ai Issued By HC Wainwright

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) – Analysts at HC Wainwright issued their Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for BigBear.ai in a report issued on Tuesday, March 3rd. HC Wainwright analyst S. Buck expects that the company will post earnings of ($0.05) per share for the quarter. HC Wainwright has a “Buy” rating and a $6.00 price target on the stock. The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai’s current full-year earnings is ($0.28) per share. HC Wainwright also issued estimates for BigBear.ai’s Q2 2026 earnings at ($0.05) EPS and FY2027 earnings at ($0.19) EPS.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. The firm had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 18.22%. The firm’s revenue was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted ($0.43) earnings per share.

BBAI has been the topic of a number of other research reports. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday, January 21st. Wall Street Zen cut BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Saturday, January 10th. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald dropped their price objective on BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a “neutral” rating on the stock in a report on Tuesday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have assigned a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. According to MarketBeat, BigBear.ai presently has an average rating of “Hold” and a consensus target price of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Trading Up 0.8%

NYSE BBAI opened at $3.83 on Wednesday. The company has a current ratio of 1.78, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16. BigBear.ai has a 1-year low of $2.36 and a 1-year high of $9.39. The firm’s fifty day simple moving average is $5.12 and its 200-day simple moving average is $5.88. The company has a market capitalization of $1.82 billion, a PE ratio of -3.83 and a beta of 3.49.

Institutional Trading of BigBear.ai

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the company. Vanguard Group Inc. grew its stake in BigBear.ai by 18.4% in the 4th quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 32,695,344 shares of the company’s stock valued at $176,555,000 after buying an additional 5,090,508 shares during the last quarter. UBS Group AG lifted its position in BigBear.ai by 145.7% during the 4th quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 10,386,833 shares of the company’s stock worth $56,089,000 after acquiring an additional 6,158,665 shares during the last quarter. State Street Corp boosted its holdings in BigBear.ai by 33.6% during the fourth quarter. State Street Corp now owns 10,279,145 shares of the company’s stock valued at $55,507,000 after acquiring an additional 2,584,278 shares during the period. Geode Capital Management LLC grew its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 35.9% in the fourth quarter. Geode Capital Management LLC now owns 10,247,877 shares of the company’s stock valued at $55,347,000 after purchasing an additional 2,706,195 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Van ECK Associates Corp bought a new position in shares of BigBear.ai in the fourth quarter worth about $46,675,000. 7.55% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Key BigBear.ai News

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: BigBear reported a transformed balance sheet — roughly $462M in cash and marketable securities and a ~90% reduction in debt, which materially reduces refinancing risk and gives the company runway to invest in growth. BigBear.ai Strengthens Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer and others) add FedRAMP-certified capabilities, recurring revenue and government market access — potential catalysts for revenue recovery and higher-margin, repeatable contracts. MarketBeat: Smart Money Buying
• Neutral Sentiment: The company beat EPS expectations modestly (reported -$0.01 vs. est. -$0.05) but missed revenue (Q4 revenue $27.3M vs. estimates ~ $33M) and provided FY2026 revenue guidance ($135M–$165M) below the consensus — a mixed report that explains the swingy market reaction. Earnings Release & Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst coverage is thin but active: HC Wainwright remains a buyer with a $6 PT (lowered from $8) while other shops trimmed targets or moved to neutral — showing divergence in expectations and leaving the name sensitive to new research. (See coverage cited in press summaries.)
• Negative Sentiment: Revenue slump: Q4 revenue fell ~37.7% YoY (from $43.8M to $27.3M), largely due to lower Army program volume — a near-term demand headwind for core government-related revenue. Revenues Slump
• Negative Sentiment: Capital raise dilution and prior share issuance expanded the float materially (share count jumped ~75%), which increased short interest and created downside volatility risk if operational recovery is slower than hoped. Dilution & Short Interest
• Negative Sentiment: Sell-side and market reaction: the stock fell sharply on heavy volume after the report (high intraday volatility), reflecting investor concern about near-term revenue and the pace of commercial recovery. Forbes: Stock Drop After Earnings

About BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.