Northland Securities Expects Lower Earnings for Geo Group

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Research analysts at Northland Securities cut their Q1 2026 earnings per share estimates for Geo Group in a research note issued on Friday, February 13th. Northland Securities analyst G. Gibas now anticipates that the real estate investment trust will post earnings per share of $0.19 for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.26. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $0.83 per share. Northland Securities also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q2 2026 earnings at $0.28 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $0.36 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.40 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $1.23 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last announced its earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The business had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $667.23 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.13 EPS. The business’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Other equities analysts have also issued reports about the stock. Jones Trading lowered their price target on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Friday. Wall Street Zen raised shares of Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, December 29th. Finally, Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $34.00.

Geo Group Stock Performance

NYSE:GEO opened at $14.20 on Monday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a current ratio of 2.01. The stock has a market capitalization of $1.98 billion, a PE ratio of 7.80 and a beta of 0.73. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.81 and a fifty-two week high of $32.09. The company has a fifty day moving average of $16.51 and a two-hundred day moving average of $18.16.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. South Dakota Investment Council lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 454.0% during the 2nd quarter. South Dakota Investment Council now owns 138,500 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $3,317,000 after purchasing an additional 113,500 shares during the last quarter. Hodges Capital Management Inc. boosted its holdings in Geo Group by 58.1% in the second quarter. Hodges Capital Management Inc. now owns 448,374 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $10,739,000 after acquiring an additional 164,760 shares during the last quarter. Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd bought a new stake in shares of Geo Group during the 3rd quarter valued at $1,283,000. Federated Hermes Inc. lifted its stake in Geo Group by 1,273.1% in the third quarter. Federated Hermes Inc. now owns 293,151 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $6,007,000 after buying an additional 271,802 shares during the period. Finally, Teacher Retirement System of Texas boosted its stake in Geo Group by 15.8% during the 2nd quarter. Teacher Retirement System of Texas now owns 281,264 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $6,736,000 after acquiring an additional 38,275 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 76.10% of the company’s stock.

More Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 revenue beat and EPS in line — GEO reported $707.7M of revenue (up 16.5% Y/Y), above consensus, and reported $0.25 EPS in Q4, matching street estimates; revenue strength is the main near-term bullish catalyst. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst backing remains — Jones Trading trimmed its price target from $37 to $33 but maintained a “Buy” rating, implying substantial upside from current levels and supporting positive sentiment. Benzinga
• Neutral Sentiment: Leadership change announced — CEO J. David Donahue will retire effective Feb. 28 and founder/executive chairman Dr. George Zoley will return as Chairman & CEO under a new employment agreement; market reaction is mixed (stability/continuity vs. governance questions). Business Wire: Reorganization
• Neutral Sentiment: Full Q4 materials available — earnings press release, slide deck and earnings call transcript are posted, providing detail for analysts and investors to model results and assumptions. Slide Deck Earnings Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: 2026 guidance below consensus — GEO gave FY2026 EPS guidance of $0.99–$1.07 (consensus ~$1.27) and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.17–$0.19 (consensus ~$0.25), which is the primary bearish driver and explains some intra-day pressure despite the revenue beat. Press Release (guidance)
• Negative Sentiment: Legal risk persists — reports that GEO was denied a rehearing in litigation add regulatory/legal overhang that could affect valuation and investor sentiment. CourtHouse News

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.