Noble Financial Forecasts Geo Group’s Q1 Earnings (NYSE:GEO)

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO) – Analysts at Noble Financial issued their Q1 2026 EPS estimates for shares of Geo Group in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday, February 17th. Noble Financial analyst J. Gomes forecasts that the real estate investment trust will post earnings of $0.21 per share for the quarter. The consensus estimate for Geo Group’s current full-year earnings is $0.83 per share. Noble Financial also issued estimates for Geo Group’s Q2 2026 earnings at $0.30 EPS, Q3 2026 earnings at $0.35 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.39 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.26 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.43 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, February 12th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.25 earnings per share for the quarter, hitting the consensus estimate of $0.25. Geo Group had a return on equity of 8.36% and a net margin of 9.67%.The company had revenue of $707.70 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $667.23 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned $0.13 EPS. The firm’s quarterly revenue was up 16.5% compared to the same quarter last year. Geo Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at 0.170-0.190 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 0.990-1.070 EPS.

Several other brokerages have also recently weighed in on GEO. Wall Street Zen upgraded Geo Group from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating in a research report on Saturday, December 13th. Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a “strong sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Weiss Ratings reissued a “hold (c)” rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, December 29th. Finally, JonesTrading reduced their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a “buy” rating for the company in a research note on Friday, February 13th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Geo Group has an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $34.00.

Geo Group Stock Up 0.6%

Geo Group stock opened at $14.66 on Wednesday. The firm has a 50 day simple moving average of $16.38 and a 200 day simple moving average of $17.98. The company has a current ratio of 2.01, a quick ratio of 1.62 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10. Geo Group has a 1-year low of $12.81 and a 1-year high of $32.09. The firm has a market capitalization of $2.04 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.06 and a beta of 0.73.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

Hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd purchased a new position in shares of Geo Group in the third quarter worth about $115,664,000. Barrow Hanley Mewhinney & Strauss LLC bought a new position in Geo Group during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $88,625,000. Continental General Insurance Co. increased its stake in Geo Group by 919.8% in the 2nd quarter. Continental General Insurance Co. now owns 3,904,474 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock worth $93,512,000 after purchasing an additional 3,521,589 shares during the period. Rubric Capital Management LP lifted its position in Geo Group by 139.5% in the third quarter. Rubric Capital Management LP now owns 2,986,915 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $61,202,000 after purchasing an additional 1,739,522 shares during the last quarter. Finally, UBS Group AG lifted its position in Geo Group by 56.5% in the third quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 3,603,288 shares of the real estate investment trust’s stock valued at $73,831,000 after purchasing an additional 1,300,139 shares during the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Key Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Seeking Alpha argues GEO is “out of favor” after a >34% sell‑off and now trades at an attractive EV/EBITDA (~6.8x), with multiple paths to EBITDA growth through 2029 and shareholder support via aggressive buybacks — a valuation/recovery thesis that can attract value investors. The GEO Group: Out Of Favor, But Many Paths To A Partial Rebound
• Positive Sentiment: Local reporting highlights that new and renewing ICE contracts are driving a revenue surge for owners of for‑profit immigration detention centers — a direct operational tailwind for GEO’s top line and near‑term cash flow. ICE contracts fuel revenue surge for owners of for-profit immigration detention centers
• Positive Sentiment: Noble Financial’s analyst models now forecast materially higher FY2026 and FY2027 EPS (FY2026: $1.26, FY2027: $1.43), well above the current consensus — supporting expectations for stronger earnings and potential multiple expansion if results track. MarketBeat – GEO analyst notes
• Neutral Sentiment: That same Noble note trimmed its FY2026 estimate (from $1.38 to $1.26), signalling some near‑term moderation vs prior internal expectations even though the revised view remains bullish versus consensus — a mixed signal for short‑term guidance credibility. MarketBeat – GEO analyst revision
• Negative Sentiment: Community activism and protests continue (a planned protest at GEO’s Ballantyne office was reported), keeping political and reputational risk visible; sustained public and political pressure could influence contract renewals or invite regulatory scrutiny. Protest planned for GEO Group office in Ballantyne

About Geo Group

The GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO’s integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO’s portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.