Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM) management highlighted record operating and financial results for full-year 2025, while outlining a lower production outlook for 2026 tied to planned mine sequencing and stream terms at key assets. The company also emphasized a multi-year growth pipeline led by Northparkes in Australia and several development-stage projects expected to contribute later in the decade.
Record 2025 production and cash flow
CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy said Triple Flag delivered record production of 113,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in 2025, landing in the upper half of guidance and marking a ninth consecutive year of year-over-year production growth. He attributed the record performance to higher GEOs and stronger gold prices, which also drove record cash flow.
2026 guidance reflects sequencing at Northparkes and Cerro Lindo stream step-down
For 2026, management guided to 95,000 to 105,000 GEOs. Vanderkooy said the expected year-over-year decline reflects “well-understood” mine sequencing at Northparkes and a planned step-down in the Cerro Lindo stream rate after the company received 19.5 million ounces of silver from the stream since acquiring it in 2016. Vanderkooy described Cerro Lindo as having a long life and strong exploration potential, with continuing exposure to silver prices.
Bari added that 2026 GEOs are expected to be derived entirely from gold and silver, and the company’s guidance assumes a conservative gold-to-silver price ratio of 72 for the year. Additional 2026 items discussed included:
- Depletion expense: $65 million to $75 million, slightly lower than 2025, reflecting expected sales mix.
- G&A costs: $30 million to $32 million, consistent with 2025, including the impact of share-based compensation tied to a stronger share price.
- Australian cash tax rate (royalties): approximately 25%, consistent with prior-year actuals.
On quarterly cadence, management said it provides annual guidance and will not break it down by quarter. Bari noted the Cerro Lindo step-down is expected to occur “sometime in Q2,” but said the company could not provide more quarterly detail.
2030 outlook and project pipeline
Management reiterated a longer-term outlook calling for production of 140,000 to 150,000 GEOs in 2030, which Vanderkooy said represents roughly 45% growth from the midpoint of 2026 guidance. COO James Dendle said the company’s long-term organic growth profile reflects progress and de-risking milestones delivered by operators across the portfolio, aided by constructive commodity prices and what he described as favorable permitting regimes in the jurisdictions where Triple Flag operates.
Dendle cited several project advances during the past 12 months, including:
- Eskay Creek (British Columbia): received full permits in less than one year after submission.
- Aridirada: Aura Minerals received a construction license within one year of acquisition.
- Goldfield (Nevada): Centerra renewed its focus on developing the project as a heap leach operation.
He also named additional assets advancing toward production or ramp-up over the medium term, including Arcata, Koné, South Railroad, and Delamar.
Northparkes highlighted as cornerstone growth asset
Both Vanderkooy and Dendle emphasized Northparkes as Triple Flag’s largest asset and a key driver of future growth. Vanderkooy said Evolution Mining recently released an update featuring “three related catalysts” for Triple Flag:
- E22 Block Cave: Evolution approved development of the E22 block cave, which Vanderkooy said has attractive gold grades for Triple Flag and is a value-maximizing approach for both companies.
- Potential mill expansion: Evolution is studying expanding throughput from 7.6 million tonnes per annum to 10 million tonnes per annum or potentially more, which management said could benefit Triple Flag’s stream.
- E44 gold-only deposit: Triple Flag and Evolution reached an agreement to enable development of E44, which had not been included in Evolution’s life-of-mine plan. Triple Flag will receive guaranteed minimum deliveries starting in 2030.
Dendle added that the E48 sub-level cave is ramping up and supporting near-term gold growth, while E22 is expected to reach initial production by 2030. He said guaranteed deliveries from E44 are expected to commence in 2030 for a seven-year period, with potential for life extensions beyond that.
In response to an analyst question about whether there could be more opportunities like E44, management pointed to Northparkes’ history as a gold project in the mid-1990s and said E44 is the most known gold-dominant deposit today. Dendle said there are multiple targets across the property identified from historical work that have not been systematically tested or defined, and suggested expanded mill capacity could increase the ability to take advantage of such mineralization.
Capital deployment, shareholder returns, and balance sheet
Vanderkooy said the company invested over $350 million in 2025 in what he described as value-accretive deals, including Arcata (Peru), the Arthur Oxide Project (Nevada), the Johnson Camp Mine (Arizona), and the Minera Florida producing mine (Chile). Bari also referenced Kemess among transactions providing immediate or near- to medium-term cash flow, exploration potential, and exposure to mining-friendly jurisdictions with strong operators.
On shareholder returns, Bari said Triple Flag paid nearly $46 million in dividends in 2025, including a 5% dividend increase mid-year, marking the fourth consecutive annual increase since the IPO. The company also repurchased $9 million of shares in the open market at an average price of about $17.39 per share, and said it expects to remain active under its NCIB opportunistically.
Bari said Triple Flag ended 2025 debt-free with more than $70 million in cash and $1 billion available on its credit facility. Vanderkooy characterized the balance sheet as “pristine” and said total liquidity exceeded $1 billion, giving the company flexibility for additional accretive growth and progressively growing shareholder returns.
During Q&A, Vanderkooy said Triple Flag’s typical “sweet spot” for deal size remains $200 million to $500 million, adding that a $4.3 billion transaction discussed in the market was “too big” for Triple Flag, but that the company sees ample opportunity to deploy capital in its targeted range.
Management also addressed two specific items. Vanderkooy said Triple Flag retains a royalty on the Pumpkin Hollow open pit and is interested to see what new owner Kinterra does with the asset, but stated the company will not invest additional capital in Pumpkin Hollow. Separately, in response to a question about ATO, Vanderkooy said the matter is in litigation and that Triple Flag removed ATO from both its 2026 guidance and its 2030 outlook, stating that the guidance includes zero contribution from ATO and that any ATO impact would be upside relative to those figures.
About Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM)
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. is a Toronto-based precious metals streaming and royalty company traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker TFPM. The company specializes in providing upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for the right to purchase a fixed percentage of future gold and silver production at discounted prices. By structuring these streaming and royalty agreements, Triple Flag Precious Metals aims to optimize its capital deployment and maintain a predictable cost profile while benefitting from upside in precious metal prices.
Since its formation in mid-2022, Triple Flag Precious Metals has established a diversified portfolio of streaming and royalty assets across a variety of jurisdictions.
