Certara (NASDAQ:CERT) Hits New 12-Month Low on Disappointing Earnings

Certara, Inc. (NASDAQ:CERT) hit a new 52-week low during trading on Thursday after the company announced weaker than expected quarterly earnings. The stock traded as low as $6.04 and last traded at $6.4030, with a volume of 502587 shares changing hands. The stock had previously closed at $6.59.

The company reported $0.09 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.11 by ($0.02). The company had revenue of $103.65 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $103.23 million. Certara had a net margin of 2.62% and a return on equity of 5.18%. Certara’s revenue was up 3.2% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business posted $0.15 earnings per share. Certara has set its FY 2026 guidance at 0.440-0.480 EPS.

Certara News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Certara this week:

• Positive Sentiment: New CEO signals operational overhaul and cost savings (management flagged ~$10M in cost avoidance and a plan to sharpen commercial execution), which investors often view as a catalyst for margin improvement and quicker cash conversion. Certara outlines flat to 4% 2026 revenue growth as new CEO signals operational overhaul and $10M cost avoidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full‑year 2025 results: revenue $418.8M (+9% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $134.5M (+10% YoY); software revenue grew ~10% in Q4 — these fundamentals support the case that higher‑margin SaaS/biosimulation is scaling. Certara Reports Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results; Provides Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Company set FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance ~30–32% and adjusted EPS $0.44–$0.48, signaling continued profit focus even as revenue growth is expected to be modest. Certara, Inc. Reports FY 2025 Financial Results with Revenue of $418.8M and Adjusted EBITDA of $134.5M, Outlines FY 2026 Guidance
• Neutral Sentiment: Management provided detail in the earnings call and slide deck about execution plans and near‑term initiatives — useful context but execution risk remains. Certara, Inc. (CERT) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 adjusted EPS missed consensus ($0.09 vs $0.11) and GAAP net loss of $5.9M (vs prior year net income), with adjusted diluted EPS down from $0.15 a year ago — near‑term profitability optics weaker on a per‑share basis. Certara, Inc. (CERT) Q4 Earnings Lag Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: FY2026 revenue guidance (0–4% growth; company‑provided revenue range below some street estimates) and commentary that growth will be modest in 2026 have prompted analysts to flag downside to near‑term top‑line forecasts. Certara earnings on deck: New CEO faces test as estimates slide

Analysts Set New Price Targets

Several brokerages recently issued reports on CERT. Rothschild & Co Redburn set a $10.00 price objective on Certara in a research report on Friday, November 21st. BMO Capital Markets assumed coverage on Certara in a research report on Thursday, November 13th. They set a “market perform” rating and a $9.00 price target for the company. Morgan Stanley cut their price target on Certara from $16.00 to $12.00 and set an “equal weight” rating for the company in a report on Thursday, December 18th. Stephens decreased their price objective on Certara from $15.00 to $12.00 and set an “overweight” rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, December 12th. Finally, KeyCorp dropped their price objective on Certara from $13.00 to $12.00 and set an “overweight” rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, January 8th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seven have given a Buy rating, five have assigned a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Certara has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus target price of $12.20.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Large investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Tejara Capital Ltd increased its holdings in shares of Certara by 94.9% during the 3rd quarter. Tejara Capital Ltd now owns 273,052 shares of the company’s stock worth $3,337,000 after buying an additional 132,927 shares during the last quarter. Sector Gamma AS acquired a new position in Certara in the third quarter valued at $2,818,000. Fort Washington Investment Advisors Inc. OH purchased a new stake in Certara during the third quarter valued at about $11,899,000. Versor Investments LP increased its stake in Certara by 104.0% during the second quarter. Versor Investments LP now owns 89,346 shares of the company’s stock worth $1,045,000 after acquiring an additional 45,546 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Intech Investment Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of Certara in the 2nd quarter worth about $329,000. 73.96% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Certara Trading Up 3.2%

The company has a market capitalization of $1.08 billion, a PE ratio of 97.14 and a beta of 1.47. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, a quick ratio of 2.09 and a current ratio of 2.09. The business has a fifty day moving average price of $8.40 and a 200 day moving average price of $9.92.

About Certara

Certara is a biosimulation software and services company that partners with pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device developers to accelerate drug discovery, development and regulatory approval. The company’s platform integrates quantitative pharmacology, real-world evidence, artificial intelligence and machine learning to model and simulate drug behavior across a range of therapeutic areas and patient populations. By applying these mechanistic and data-driven approaches, Certara helps its clients predict clinical outcomes, optimize dosing strategies and streamline decision-making throughout the product lifecycle.

The company’s offerings are divided into software tools and consulting services.