BigBear.ai Q1 EPS Estimate Reduced by Northland Securities

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) – Analysts at Northland Securities dropped their Q1 2026 EPS estimates for shares of BigBear.ai in a report released on Tuesday, March 3rd. Northland Securities analyst M. Latimore now expects that the company will post earnings of ($0.06) per share for the quarter, down from their prior estimate of ($0.05). The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai’s current full-year earnings is ($0.28) per share. Northland Securities also issued estimates for BigBear.ai’s Q2 2026 earnings at ($0.04) EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at ($0.03) EPS and FY2026 earnings at ($0.17) EPS.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of ($0.05) by $0.04. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 230.21% and a negative return on equity of 18.22%. The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $33.31 million. During the same quarter last year, the business earned ($0.43) earnings per share. The business’s revenue for the quarter was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis.

BBAI has been the subject of several other research reports. Wall Street Zen lowered BigBear.ai from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Saturday, January 10th. Cantor Fitzgerald cut their price target on shares of BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a “neutral” rating for the company in a report on Tuesday. Weiss Ratings restated a “sell (d-)” rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research report on Wednesday, January 21st. Finally, HC Wainwright lowered their price objective on shares of BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of “Hold” and an average target price of $5.00.

BigBear.ai Stock Performance

Shares of NYSE BBAI opened at $4.04 on Thursday. BigBear.ai has a 1 year low of $2.36 and a 1 year high of $9.39. The firm has a market cap of $1.92 billion, a P/E ratio of -4.04 and a beta of 3.49. The stock has a fifty day moving average price of $5.08 and a two-hundred day moving average price of $5.86. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, a quick ratio of 3.13 and a current ratio of 1.78.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in BBAI. Van ECK Associates Corp acquired a new position in BigBear.ai in the 4th quarter worth approximately $46,675,000. Vanguard Group Inc. lifted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 32.6% in the third quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 27,604,836 shares of the company’s stock valued at $179,984,000 after purchasing an additional 6,790,890 shares in the last quarter. UBS Group AG boosted its position in shares of BigBear.ai by 145.7% in the fourth quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 10,386,833 shares of the company’s stock worth $56,089,000 after buying an additional 6,158,665 shares during the period. Jump Financial LLC acquired a new stake in shares of BigBear.ai in the second quarter worth $37,407,000. Finally, Two Sigma Investments LP grew its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 165.5% during the third quarter. Two Sigma Investments LP now owns 4,903,920 shares of the company’s stock valued at $31,974,000 after buying an additional 3,056,597 shares in the last quarter. 7.55% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Trending Headlines about BigBear.ai

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Company reported a large cash build and dramatic debt reduction (reported $462M cash & investments and ~90% debt cut), improving near-term solvency and reducing near-term financing risk. BigBear.ai Strengthens Balance Sheet
• Positive Sentiment: Strategic acquisitions (Ask Sage, Cargo Seer) add FedRAMP access, recurring revenue potential and border-control/computer-vision capabilities that support longer-term government contract growth. MarketBeat: Smart Money Buying
• Positive Sentiment: Some analysts raised near-term estimates or maintained bullish views: Northland nudged several FY/Q estimates modestly higher, and HC Wainwright still carries a Buy rating with a $6 target — evidence of at least some street confidence in recovery potential. HC Wainwright Note
• Neutral Sentiment: Institutional accumulation and reduced short seller headwinds were flagged by market commentary — could support rallies but also leaves the stock vulnerable to volatile squeezes. MarketBeat Institutional Notes
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst model churn: some firms trimmed FY estimates while keeping higher price targets, producing mixed bench of guidance changes rather than a clear consensus. Forbes: What’s Happening With BBAI
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 revenue missed expectations sharply — $27.3M vs. ~$33.3M consensus and a ~37.7% YoY decline — driven by lower Army program volume; investors sold on the top-line miss despite an EPS beat. Yahoo Finance: Revenues Slump
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst downgrades and pessimistic forecasts (Cantor Fitzgerald and others) amplified the sell-off and increased near-term downside risk; coverage remains thin and mixed. Cantor Fitzgerald Forecast Trading Down After Downgrade
• Negative Sentiment: Valuation and execution doubts remain: some analysts and commentary (Seeking Alpha) argue the stock still trades at a premium to achievable fundamentals, keeping upside conditional on revenue recovery and contract execution. Seeking Alpha: Remains Expensive

About BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.