Following a recent snap election victory, South Korea’s new President, Lee Jae-myung, is signaling a strategy of stability and continuity on key defense issues, even as his administration prepares for challenging negotiations with the United States. Despite his party’s history of advocating for rapprochement with North Korea, President Lee is expected to maintain the robust defense posture of his predecessor, mainly due to ongoing regional threats and domestic political pressures.
A New Face in Defense Signals Reform, Not Revolution
One of the new administration’s first major moves was the appointment of lawmaker Ahn Gyu-back as defense minister, a position traditionally held by retired four-star generals. According to Kim Ju Hyung, President of the Seoul-based Security Management Institute and a specialist in U.S.-Korea relations, this appointment represents a significant shift in the nation’s civilian-military dynamic.
Ahn, a veteran lawmaker with extensive experience in legislative and defense oversight, is seen as a choice that will promote reform and transparency within the ministry. Kim told Defense News that the appointment also sends a message of “continuity and reliability” to Washington. Ahn is viewed not as an opponent of the U.S. alliance, but as a “reform-minded moderate who may emphasize technological upgrades and alliance coordination without being overly deferential,” Kim noted.
Navigating a Hawkish North and Conservative South
This aggression, combined with the need to reassure conservatives at home, makes any immediate departure from established policy politically dangerous. “Any major departures from Yoon-era security policy would be politically risky at this stage,” Kim said. Consequently, the Lee administration is expected to uphold critical defense frameworks. This includes the three-axis defense system designed to counter a North Korean first strike, the landmark Camp David trilateral summit agreements, and the nuclear-sharing pact with the United States. Real-time missile defense data sharing with the U.S. and Japan is also slated to continue.
Looming Negotiations with Washington
While continuity is the immediate theme, significant challenges lie ahead in the U.S.-South Korea alliance. President Lee is expected to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs. This meeting will likely expand to include discussions on defense spending and the cost of maintaining 28,000 U.S. troops on the peninsula.
Washington has been pressuring allies to double their defense spending to counter threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. South Korea already allocates 2.7% of its GDP to defense, and analyst Kim suggests that a major leap would be “politically contentious and fiscally difficult.”
Further complicating matters is the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which governs South Korea’s financial contributions for U.S. Forces Korea. The latest five-year deal, sealed in 2024, sets Seoul’s 2026 payment at $1.41 billion, but the Trump administration reportedly wants a significant increase. Lee’s Democratic Party has long voiced concerns over financial dependency on the U.S., suggesting he will approach negotiations cautiously. Kim suggests that a “soft renegotiation” could be on the table, where Seoul might seek more flexibility or aim to redirect funds toward mutually beneficial projects, such as joint AI and space capabilities.
