Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) used its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results presentation to outline a more cautious capital spending plan for 2026 and 2027, while reaffirming priorities around shareholder returns and oil and gas production growth. Management repeatedly emphasized preparedness for a more volatile macro backdrop, citing geopolitical tension, shifting energy transition policies, and uncertainty in commodity markets.
2025 performance and operating highlights
Chief Executive Officer Anders Opedal described 2025 as “a year of strong deliveries” despite high inflation in the supply chain and lower commodity prices. Equinor reported record production in 2025, driven by operational performance and new fields coming on stream.
In power, Equinor reported 5.65 terawatt-hours of generation for 2025, and said renewables power generation was up 25% year over year.
Sharper focus on cash flow: CapEx cut and cost targets
A central message from management was that Equinor is taking “firm actions to strengthen free cash flow.” The company reduced its capital spending outlook for 2026 and 2027 by about $4 billion, “mainly within power and low carbon,” while maintaining oil and gas investments at around $10 billion annually.
Equinor guided to organic CapEx of around $13 billion in 2026. For 2027, management indicated CapEx of $9 billion, with CFO Reitan noting the expected monetization of Empire Wind investment tax credits (ITCs) as part of that profile.
On costs, management said it aims for a 10% reduction in OpEx and SG&A in 2026. Reitan clarified on the call that the reported decline is significantly influenced by structural changes including the divestment of Peregrino and the establishment of Adura (which will be equity-accounted), while underlying cost development is expected to be flat despite inflation and production growth. He also said Equinor reduced renewables OpEx and SG&A by 27% in 2025, primarily by lowering early-phase costs.
Equinor also reiterated goals to reduce unit production cost to $6 per barrel and cited an upstream CO2 intensity of 6.3 kg per barrel.
Portfolio actions: Empire Wind, divestments, and Adura
Management provided substantial detail on Empire Wind. Opedal said two stop-work orders had been issued in 2025, which the company views as unlawful. The first was lifted in May, while a second order arrived “just before Christmas,” citing national security reasons. Equinor said it received a preliminary injunction in January allowing construction to resume, with further legal process ongoing and continued dialogue with U.S. authorities.
Despite disruptions, Equinor said Empire Wind execution remains “according to plan” and the project is now over 60% complete. The company has installed all monopiles, the offshore substation, and nearly 300 kilometers of subsea cables. Total CapEx for Empire Wind is expected to be around $7.5 billion, with about $3 billion remaining. Management said the project remains exposed to uncertainty around possible future tariffs.
Equinor said the cash effect of tax credits is expected to be around $2.5 billion. Reitan added that, in its planning, the company assumes around $2 billion ITC impact in 2027, and described the ITC market in the U.S. as “large and growing.” Management said it has drawn $2.7 billion of project financing so far and expects to draw the remaining $400 million in 2026.
Equinor also highlighted portfolio high-grading moves, including:
- Divesting onshore assets in Argentina for total consideration of $1.1 billion, described as unlocking capital for higher-value opportunities.
- Establishing Adura, a joint venture with Shell on the UK Continental Shelf. Management said Adura is fully self-funded, covers Rosebank CapEx, and expects to distribute more than 50% of cash flow from operations beginning in the first half of 2026.
Based on Adura’s plans, Opedal said Equinor expects total dividends of more than $1 billion for 2026 and 2027 combined, and clarified in Q&A that the figure refers to Equinor’s share. Management said this shifts the UK portfolio from cash-negative (due to CapEx) to cash-positive via dividends.
Production outlook, exploration activity, and key field dynamics
Equinor guided to oil and gas production growth of around 3% in 2026, building from record 2025 levels. Management said ramp-ups on new fields should more than offset divestments and natural decline, and noted a three-year average reserve replacement ratio of 100%.
On the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), Equinor said it made 14 commercial discoveries in 2025, mainly near existing infrastructure, and expects to drill around 30 exploration wells in 2026 (management also referenced 26 NCS exploration wells in response to one question). It also said it has added acreage in Norway, Brazil, and Angola.
During Q&A, management said it expects Johan Sverdrup to enter decline in 2026, with a decline rate “more than 10%, but well below 20%,” while still expecting overall company production growth. Opedal said it was too early to guide for 2027 decline rates and pointed to ongoing mitigation work and Johan Sverdrup Phase Three expected at the end of 2027.
Capital returns framework and 2026 guidance
Equinor reiterated that the cash dividend is the starting point for shareholder distributions, with an ambition to increase the quarterly cash dividend by two cents per share annually. Management said the quarterly dividend has been increased to $0.39 per share, representing more than a 5% increase.
For 2026, Equinor announced a share buyback program of $1.5 billion (including the state’s share), with a first tranche of $375 million set to begin the day after the call. Reitan said buybacks remain part of regular capital distribution but are more sensitive to the macro environment than the cash dividend. He also said the company will “lean on the balance sheet” in 2026 due to timing effects including Norwegian tax lag and Empire Wind phasing, with improved free cash flow expected in 2027 due to stronger cash flow from operations and lower CapEx.
Equinor guided to about $16 billion in cash flow from operations after tax in 2026, reflecting a lower price outlook and tax lag effects in Norway, rising to around $18 billion in 2027 at flat price assumptions. Reitan cited planning assumptions of $65 oil, $9 European gas, and $3.5 U.S. gas.
About Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR)
Equinor ASA (NYSE: EQNR) is a Norway-based integrated energy company headquartered in Stavanger. Historically established as Statoil in the 1970s to develop Norway’s petroleum resources, the company changed its name to Equinor in 2018 to reflect a strategic shift toward a broader energy portfolio. Equinor’s operations span the full upstream value chain, including exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas, alongside trading and marketing activities that support its global commercial operations.
In recent years Equinor has pursued a transition strategy that combines continued development of conventional oil and gas resources with growing investments in low‑carbon energy.
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