Erste Group Bank Forecasts Stronger Earnings for Caterpillar

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) – Investment analysts at Erste Group Bank boosted their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Caterpillar in a note issued to investors on Wednesday, February 18th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now forecasts that the industrial products company will earn $22.61 per share for the year, up from their previous forecast of $22.57. The consensus estimate for Caterpillar’s current full-year earnings is $19.86 per share.

A number of other analysts have also issued reports on CAT. Morgan Stanley boosted their price target on Caterpillar from $400.00 to $425.00 and gave the company an “underweight” rating in a report on Tuesday, February 3rd. Oppenheimer upped their target price on Caterpillar from $700.00 to $729.00 and gave the stock an “outperform” rating in a report on Friday, January 30th. Citigroup lifted their price objective on Caterpillar from $710.00 to $760.00 and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Monday, February 2nd. Raymond James Financial reiterated a “market perform” rating on shares of Caterpillar in a report on Wednesday, January 7th. Finally, DA Davidson upped their price target on shares of Caterpillar from $569.00 to $650.00 and gave the stock a “neutral” rating in a research report on Monday, February 2nd. Sixteen analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, seven have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company’s stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Caterpillar presently has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” and an average target price of $702.95.

Caterpillar Price Performance

Caterpillar stock opened at $759.52 on Monday. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.44, a current ratio of 1.44 and a quick ratio of 0.94. The stock has a market cap of $353.40 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.36, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.80 and a beta of 1.58. The firm has a 50-day moving average of $649.75 and a two-hundred day moving average of $553.58. Caterpillar has a 1 year low of $267.30 and a 1 year high of $789.81.

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, January 29th. The industrial products company reported $5.16 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, beating analysts’ consensus estimates of $4.67 by $0.49. The firm had revenue of $19.13 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $17.81 billion. Caterpillar had a net margin of 13.14% and a return on equity of 45.76%. The business’s revenue was up 17.9% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm earned $5.14 earnings per share.

Caterpillar Dividend Announcement

The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Thursday, February 19th. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, January 20th were issued a $1.51 dividend. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, January 20th. This represents a $6.04 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.8%. Caterpillar’s dividend payout ratio (DPR) is currently 32.09%.

Insider Buying and Selling at Caterpillar

In related news, CAO William E. Schaupp sold 972 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction on Tuesday, February 17th. The stock was sold at an average price of $764.20, for a total value of $742,802.40. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief accounting officer owned 824 shares in the company, valued at $629,700.80. This trade represents a 54.12% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, insider Denise C. Johnson sold 39,138 shares of the business’s stock in a transaction dated Monday, February 2nd. The shares were sold at an average price of $681.08, for a total value of $26,656,109.04. Following the sale, the insider owned 43,350 shares in the company, valued at approximately $29,524,818. The trade was a 47.45% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. In the last ninety days, insiders sold 141,172 shares of company stock valued at $96,514,673. Company insiders own 0.33% of the company’s stock.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Caterpillar

Several hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of CAT. Norges Bank purchased a new position in Caterpillar in the second quarter valued at $2,165,899,000. Wellington Management Group LLP raised its holdings in Caterpillar by 3,949.8% in the 3rd quarter. Wellington Management Group LLP now owns 5,228,058 shares of the industrial products company’s stock worth $2,494,568,000 after purchasing an additional 5,098,964 shares during the period. Capital International Investors purchased a new position in Caterpillar during the fourth quarter worth approximately $1,225,317,000. Massachusetts Financial Services Co. MA grew its holdings in Caterpillar by 1,851.8% in the third quarter. Massachusetts Financial Services Co. MA now owns 1,830,414 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $873,382,000 after purchasing an additional 1,736,631 shares during the period. Finally, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. increased its position in shares of Caterpillar by 573.1% in the fourth quarter. Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. now owns 1,504,612 shares of the industrial products company’s stock valued at $861,947,000 after buying an additional 1,281,087 shares in the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 70.98% of the company’s stock.

Key Stories Impacting Caterpillar

Here are the key news stories impacting Caterpillar this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 beat: Caterpillar reported sequential EPS growth and revenue above expectations, snapping five quarters of EPS declines — a near‑term earnings positive that supports upside if margins stabilize. CAT Sees Q4 Earnings Growth Amid Cost Pressures
• Positive Sentiment: Bullish outlook: CNBC highlights momentum from 2025 and argues there’s more upside in 2026 based on order strength and secular exposures — a catalyst for positive analyst sentiment and fund flows. This industrial giant is off to the races in 2026 after a strong 2025
• Positive Sentiment: Mining tech M&A: Caterpillar completed the RPMGlobal acquisition to bolster software and data offerings — a strategic move to increase recurring, higher‑margin services revenue over time. Caterpillar acquires RPMGlobal to bolster mining tech solutions
• Positive Sentiment: Battery/capacity push: Caterpillar‑backed investments (ElevenEs Series B & reported mega battery plant plans) expand electrification exposure — long‑term growth potential in mining and power systems. ElevenEs Held 1st Closing of Its Series B Investment Round
• Positive Sentiment: AI/data‑center demand angle: Coverage points to Caterpillar exposure to data‑center power and electrification — a structural demand story that could diversify revenue beyond equipment cycles. Can AI Infrastructure Spending Keep CAT Stock Climbing?
• Neutral Sentiment: Investor events: Management will appear at CONEXPO and recently presented at Barclays — useful for incremental guidance but not immediate catalysts until management commentary or updates. Caterpillar CEO Joe Creed to Participate in Fireside Chat at CONEXPO
• Neutral Sentiment: Benchmarking: Caterpillar is among the Dow leaders YTD — positive sentiment but not a direct fundamental driver. Caterpillar, Honeywell, and Chevron Lead the Dow Jones in 2026
• Negative Sentiment: Insider selling: Multiple disclosed sales (including CAO William Schaupp and other senior officers) have been reported this week — raising short‑term selling pressure and investor concern about timing. Insider Selling: Caterpillar CAO Sells 972 Shares
• Negative Sentiment: Margin and estimate risks: Reports flag tariffs, rising input costs and margin compression heading into 2026; Zacks has trimmed near‑term EPS estimates — a clear short‑term earnings risk. CAT Sees Q4 Earnings Growth Amid Cost Pressures
• Negative Sentiment: Valuation concerns: Coverage on mining tech and battery moves calls attention to a rich CAT valuation vs. the added execution risk of new initiatives — could limit multiple expansion. Caterpillar’s Mining Tech And Battery Moves Confront Rich Valuation Concerns

About Caterpillar

Caterpillar Inc is a global manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and locomotives. The company’s product portfolio includes earthmoving machines such as excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders and off‑highway trucks, as well as a range of power generation products including generator sets and power systems for industrial and commercial use. Caterpillar serves customers across heavy construction, mining, energy, transportation and related industries with both equipment and integrated technology solutions.

In addition to manufacturing, Caterpillar provides a broad range of aftermarket parts and support services, including maintenance, repair, remanufacturing and fleet management tools.